Hard Questions, Real Answers by William Lane Craig

Author:William Lane Craig [Craig, William Lane]
Language: eng
Format: mobi, epub, pdf
ISBN: 9781433511349
Publisher: Good News Publishers
Published: 2003-10-17T04:00:00+00:00

5

SUFFERING AND

EVIL (II)

When we consider the probabilistic problem of evil, things are not so easy. For even though the explanation of evil I gave in the last chapter is possible, still it seems wildly improbable. Explaining all natural evil as the result of demons, for example, seems ridiculous. Does anyone really believe that earthquakes are the result of demons moving tectonic plates about or that when he stubs his toe the devil made him do it? And couldn’t God reduce the evil in the world without reducing the good? To recall the tragedy in Mexico City, what impairment of the good of the world would have resulted if the child had simply died in the collapse of the building instead of lingering eleven days in agony? The world is filled with so many seemingly pointless and unnecessary evils that it seems doubtful that God could have any sort of morally sufficient reason for permitting them. Accordingly, it might be argued that given the evil in the world, it is improbable, even if not impossible, that God exists.

Now this is a much more powerful argument than the purely logical problem of evil. Since its conclusion is more modest (“It is improbable that God exists”), it is much easier to prove. What shall we say about this argument? Is it improbable that God exists?

Well, to begin with, let’s note a very important—indeed, crucial—difference between a probability argument like this one and a purely logical argument like the one we had before. In the case of a purely logical argument, all you have to consider is the argument itself. If the logical problem of evil is a sound argument, then God cannot exist, period, no questions asked. But with a probability argument, we have to ask: probable with respect to what? To give an illustration: suppose Joe is a college student. Suppose, further, that 95 percent of college students drink beer. With respect to that information, it makes it highly probable that Joe drinks beer. But suppose we find out that Joe is a Wheaton College student and that 95 percent of Wheaton students do not drink beer. Suddenly the probability of Joe’s being a beer drinker has changed dramatically! The point is that probabilities are relative to what background information is considered.

Now apply this principle to the probabilistic problem of evil. It claims to prove that God’s existence is improbable. But with respect to what? With respect to the evil in the world? If that’s all you consider, then I should hardly be surprised that God’s existence would appear improbable with respect to that. Indeed, I should consider it to be a major philosophical achievement if Christians could demonstrate that relative to the evil in the world alone, God’s existence is not improbable. But the Christian needn’t be committed to such an arduous task. He will insist that we consider, not just the evil in the world, but all the evidence relevant to God’s existence, including the ontological argument for a maximally

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